The missed opportunity for Turkey to get closer to the West is mentioned in an analysis by Reuters, commenting on Recep Tayyip Erdogan's moves in relation to the war in Ukraine and within the neighbouring country.
Before traveling to Moscow last week, UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres made a stop in Ankara to meet with Erdogan and praise the Turkish leader's diplomatic efforts to end the war in Ukraine, the Reuters article noted, which has been republished by other European media outlets.
Less than two hours after the two shook hands, much of the goodwill that Ankara has generated in the West through its unique role as a mediator between warring parties was undone, undermining Turkey's chances of benefiting from its recent actions.
What was the turning point?
The turning point came when an Istanbul court sentenced Osman Kavala, whom the article describes as a philanthropist, to life imprisonment for his role in the 2013 anti-government protests, defying Western pleas to free him in a case many consider politically motivated.
A Western diplomat who watched the news with surprise on his phone on April 25 said the ruling underscores that Erdogan's government "cannot be trusted on certain issues" despite having won political points over Ukraine.
Another envoy described the verdict as the "worst case scenario."
Eight diplomats told Reuters that the ruling is a blow to Turkey's ambitions to heal worn economic and political ties with Western countries while remaining close to Moscow - Erdogan opposes sanctions against it.
It also "chills" Western rapprochement hopes, they said.
A reversal for Turkey
It is a reversal for Turkey, which is the only country to host wartime talks between Russian and Ukrainian foreign ministers and peace negotiators.
Ankara wants the West to prepare for the end of the war, including the gradual lifting of sanctions, and to lift restrictions on its own defence industry.
It also wants more cooperation with its NATO allies, including the United States, France and Italy, and to ease existing tensions with the West ahead of elections amid growing economic concerns.
Skepticism about Erdogan's strength ahead of the 2023 election, which recent polls suggest he could lose, has also undermined the chances of concluding meaningful trade or investment deals, including progress on updating the customs union with the European Union, several of the diplomats said.
Erdogan and officials say the war has made allies aware of Turkey's geopolitical importance and that Ankara's balanced policy on Ukraine has been met with satisfaction, even admiration. Diplomats interviewed shared this assessment.
The West understands Turkey's position on sanctions and Ankara will not become a refuge to avoid them, Turkish officials added.
Over the weekend, Erdogan's spokesman and chief foreign policy adviser Ibrahim Kalin made a surprise visit to Kiev to meet with President Volodymyr Zelensky. He later said they discussed ways to end the war.
Things could get worse
If Russia's attacks on Ukraine last into the summer, Turkey, with the second-largest military in NATO, will likely come under increasing pressure from Washington and Brussels to step up its support for Ukraine, diplomats said.
Turkey has already sent armed drones to Kiev, partially blocked Russian naval transit in the Black Sea and banned Russian flights to and from Syria.
Turkey's stance of facilitating negotiations and opposing sanctions against Moscow in principle "cannot last for long," a third diplomat said.
A shift toward Ukraine in the conflict could push Russia to punish Turkey's economy by cutting off heavy tourist and energy flows, or both, this official said, underscoring that the opportunity could turn into a crisis for Ankara.
Erdogan is nervous about the 2023 elections
Soaring energy costs due to the war have already exacerbated Turkey's currency crisis and sent inflation soaring to 61 percent, complicating Erdogan's prospects for elections in mid-2023.
Some analysts said the Kavala ruling, by courts that some critics believe are influenced by Erdogan, served as a warning to the opposition ahead of the vote. The president may have been emboldened by the diplomatic cover provided by the war, they added.
"Erdogan doesn't want to be excluded from the West, but he wants to be accepted as he is: as Turkey's strongman," said Birol Baskan, a contract researcher at the Washington-based Middle East Institute.
Throughout the second of Erdogan's two decades in power, Western leaders have criticized his suppression of Turkey's rights and dissent. Germany summoned Turkey's ambassador in Berlin over the Kavala verdict, which Washington also called "unfair," prompting Ankara to call the German ambassador for answers.
Turkey says its courts are independent and that it is taking steps to improve the rule of law, but it also dismisses domestic and international criticism of its judicial system as interference in its internal affairs.
Sanctions and arms
Turkey's stance on the war, including Moscow's approval of flights, has made it a top destination for Russian citizens, funds and even sanctioned assets such as oligarchs' yotes.
Three Western diplomats said this could prompt the United States or Europe to adopt "secondary sanctions" against those who deal with Moscow.
"We are asking Ankara to enforce our sanctions. If it becomes clear that they are being violated, it is possible that secondary sanctions will be imposed," one of the envoys said."
Another possible pressure is Turkey's desire, shared by the United Nations, to end the fighting in Ukraine immediately and return as much as possible to a world in which Ankara balances its relations with the West and Russia.
On Turkey's relations with Russia and the United States
The United States and some other countries instead want the war to end on the right terms. US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said last week that Washington wants to see Moscow "weakened" so that it cannot invade again.
However, Turkey is expected to reconsider its relationship with Russia.
Ankara's purchase of Russian S-400 defense systems triggered US sanctions on Turkey in 2020 and "froze" relations between them.
However, its request for 40 US F-16 fighters last year combined with cooperation on Ukraine could pave the way for a compromise on Washington's demand that Turkey give up the S-400s, three diplomats said.
These officials said that the intensification of talks on the possible purchase of Eurosam's Franco-Italian SAMP-T missile defense systems also reflects a new and more focused cooperation in NATO.
Source: in.gr
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