In the worst way, Turkey confirms the strong concern that has existed over the past two weeks about a serious escalation of tensions in Greek-Turkish relations. A crisis that is estimated to have not yet come to a head, with Athens preparing for a "hot" summer.
Cavusoglu's statements yesterday were the icing on a cake that the Turkish government has been baking for a long time. When the Turkish Foreign Minister opened a discussion on the sovereignty of Greek islands, with the map ready, he knew exactly what would follow. Athens refrained from responding to the verbal attacks with the same intensity and in the same style. However, it cannot hide its deep concern that Turkey's rhetoric brings us closer to the worst-case scenario for the outcome of the Greek-Turkish crisis.
According to this scenario, Turkey will try to challenge the Greek sovereignty of the islands in the Eastern Aegean through actions. It may do so by expanding the harassment, which so far has been done from the air. Radio harassment of Greek air force aircraft has become routine. As have violations of the Athens FIR which usually lead to aerial fights.
In contrast, to date there has been no attempted harassment of waterborne assets or a ground provocation crisis, as happened a few days before the Imia tragedy in 1996. Military analysts believe that in this case it is very likely that things could get out of hand and we could end up with a hot incident. But even if there is no such intention, they warn that a serious accident is very likely. Then the consequences would be really unpredictable.
A drilling rig in the Aegean?
The second possibility wants Turkey to cause tension by sending a drilling rig into the Greek seas, just as it did in the Cypriot EEZ. Anyway, Ankara has already marked on the map areas it claims on the basis of the illegal Turkish-Libyan memorandum. These are the maritime areas near Crete and around Kastelorizo, where illegal seismographic surveys were carried out in 2020.
This does not mean that they exclude areas in the Aegean, especially the Eastern Aegean, which the Turkish Foreign Minister attempted to do yesterday if the Turkish Foreign Minister grayed out. In the last few days, the research vessels Yunuz (central Aegean) and Cesme (near Lesbos) were launched in the Greek seas.
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