The beginning of the end of the Russian invasion of Ukraine will probably be written today in Antalya. The trilateral meeting that the Russian-Ukrainian-Turkish foreign ministers will hold at the Regnum Carya Hotel is for many analysts the biggest opportunity presented in the last two weeks for a diplomatic solution. As long as there is real will on both sides.
Unlike on the battle front, on the diplomatic front there have been developments in the last 48 hours that have generated a glimmer of optimism.[/B] The behind-the-scenes successive consultations between the two protagonists and would-be bridge-builders seem to have yielded some results, but they remain at a theoretical level.
Indicative of this is yesterday's Jerusalem Post report that the differences between the two sides are no longer so great. The report states that Ukraine is facing a Russian proposal for a compromise that is difficult, but not impossible.
The Israeli newspaper publishes the final proposal, which is clearly closer to Moscow's initial positions. Ukraine will guarantee its independence, accept the secession of Donbass and the sovereignty of Crimea, pledge not to join NATO and take steps towards demilitarization.
The report ties in perfectly with the statements made by the Ukrainian President in the last two days. On the one hand he left an open window to negotiate the acceptance of the status quo in Crimea and the secession of the Donbass Lugansk, on the other hand he said that he is not interested in joining NATO if the Alliance does not want this to happen. We even heard him attacking the Westerners, accusing them of being insensitive to the Polish fighter aircraft proposal.
All these are serious indications that something is about to happen. It remains for the fog to lift and for us to see what exactly lies behind these indications. Something that is possible during today's trilateral meeting in Turkey.
The first meeting of senior officials of the two countries since the war broke out will be considered a success if Lavrov and Kuleba reach an agreement on a summit. If progress is indeed recorded and a meeting of the leaders is arranged, then it is clear that Putin and Zelensky will be just a mile away from a final peace agreement.
But this is but the snapshot of the moment, as even the most optimistic recognize that we are dealing with two demonstrably unpredictable leaders who may well spoil the soup at the drop of a hat by overturning positions and facts.
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