He came back a winner, it seems, from Madrid, Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan appears to have secured - at least initially - the purchase of US F16 fighter jets in return for the green light for Sweden and Finland's NATO membership. [/B]
Apart from the military dimension, the eventual purchase of the F16 fighters will politically upgrade Turkey, which, it is confirmed that despite the occasional standoffs with the US and other Western countries, remains an important regional player with significant geostrategic importance, which even allows it to have privileged relations with Moscow.
The tactics of high tones and many claims pursued by Tayyip Erdogan in recent months seem to have paid off and obliged Turkey's allies at the North Atlantic Alliance meeting in the Spanish capital, to largely accept his terms, in such a way as to gain valuable political capital internationally but especially within Turkey, which is on track for presidential and parliamentary elections in 2023.
F-16 modernization
Officially, the White House has denied offering quid pro quo to Tayyip Erdogan, but the two sides have certainly reached an agreement on fleet modernization. However, it is noted that the promise the Biden administration appears to have made to Erdogan must go through the appropriate congressional committees to be implemented, something that may find an obstacle in the way of powerful Senator Robert Menendez, who has at every opportunity expressed his outright disagreement with such a possibility. The embargo on the F-16 upgrade was strongly supported by the Greek and Cypriot communities in the US, as well as many organized groups, which angered Turkey.
Relations with Kurds
Erdogan's demand that Sweden and Finland stop supporting Kurdish organizations, which Turkey describes as terrorist, was accepted by both countries. Specifically, based on the agreement they signed with Turkey, Sweden and Finland accept that they will stop providing support to Kurdish organizations in Syria (YPD/PYG), as well as to Fetullah Gülen's movement. No connection is made between these Kurdish organizations and terrorism, which is a long-standing demand of Turkey, but which has not been met. Similarly, reference is made to the PKK, an organisation recognised by the European Union as a terrorist organisation. The agreement with the two countries on the issue of terrorism is a tangible result in Erdogan's favour, with particular significance at home.
Lifting the arms embargo
Furthermore, Erdogan has demanded the lifting of the arms embargo on his country by Sweden and Finland, which he did not explicitly secure but is implicitly implied. In particular, the text makes no reference to the commitments made by both Sweden and Finland within the European Union, which are still in force. It should be recalled that licences for the export of weapons systems are a national decision, not a European one. In reality, however, the two Scandinavian countries have traditionally not played a particularly large role in Ankara's arms programmes. The value of Sweden's sales to Turkey for the entire five-year period 2015-19 barely exceeds EUR 50 million, while the picture is similar in terms of arms cooperation between Turkey and Finland, with arms sales to Turkey in 2019 and 2020 totalling EUR 5.1 million.
Support to CFSP-PESCO
Turkey's agreement with Finland and Sweden reiterates Ankara's desire to participate in the Common European Defence and Security (CSDP), as well as the EU's Permanent Structured [DEFENCE] Cooperation (PESCO), particularly in the military mobility project. This registration has a symbolic gain for Turkey since on a practical level, any support from Sweden and Finland to the Turkish request will not work as it requires a unanimous decision of the participating EU states, which includes both Cyprus and Greece.
Kasoulides' first statement
The decisions in Madrid were received with concern in Nicosia, as is evident from the first statements of Foreign Minister Ioannis Kasoulides, who speaking to RIK said that there are provisions in the agreement that create a favourable climate regarding Ankara's possible participation in the Permanent Structural Cooperation, Pesco. He reiterated the position of the Republic of Cyprus that countries like Turkey have no right to participate in future initiatives of the European Union's Common Defence and Security Policy due to its constant challenges and revisionist policies. Referring to the difficulties that Cyprus may face, the Foreign Minister referred to the climate that is being created abroad and specifically among our partners in the EU, since, as he said, some NATO member states, which welcomed the agreement, are also members of the European Union.
The Foreign Minister stressed that despite the negative development, the Government will not react hotly, but will carefully study the developments and will act accordingly.
Concerns about the benefits gained by Tayyip Erdogan also exist in Greece, although government sources in Athens express satisfaction with the fact that Sweden and Finland are bound by the positions of the European Union and the European Council Conclusions, which clearly record Turkish provocativeness and European support for Greek sovereignty and sovereign rights against Ankara's unfounded claims. In conclusion, the government sources stress that Greece has supported the accession of Sweden and Finland from the beginning, in the framework of European solidarity and looks forward to their full NATO membership as soon as possible, as the EU's European arm within NATO will be further strengthened.
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