With a staged show in Izmir[/B], Erdogan launched his election campaign and gave a clear indication of the route he intends to take to reach the ballot box. A route that will basically go through the Greek-Turkish and Cyprus issues. Hence the unprecedented verbal attack he launched against Athens and Nicosia last Thursday, a few hours before officially announcing his candidacy for 2023.
With his full frontal attack and fiery lines, the Turkish President confirmed that his political agenda has changed and now his extreme rhetoric on our national issues is at the top of the list. "We are not joking, the Greeks need to come to their senses," he said, warning that he will not hesitate to go back to events like the ones that happened a century ago (Asia Minor Catastrophe)
Unfortunately, this is not the climax of the crisis, which, it seems, is still at the beginning. Turkish elections will take place in about a year and until then we have a lot to hear. To hear and not to see, according to the optimistic scenario and expert assessments that the challenges will not carry over into the field. At least for now there seems to be no such intention.
A simple reading of the most recent polls in Turkey is enough to interpret Erdogan's change of attitude. His ratings remain down and very close to those secured by Kemal Kilicdaroglu's Republican Turkish Party and Meral Aksener's nationalist Good Party. The latter has been on the rise in recent weeks.
In order for this snapshot of the moment not to be reflected in the ballot box, Erdogan is quick to colour his election campaign with extreme nationalist slogans. He has sidelined Syria, toned down the dispute with the West and is trying to boost national morale by launching attacks on Greece and Cyprus.
He is not only doing this for his own ratings, but also to cajole the far-right voters of his government partner Devlet Bahçeli. The Turkish President knows very well that no scenario comes out without the participation of the Nationalist Action Party in the government.
Apart from his allies, Erdogan has also managed to "trap" their political opponents with his rant against Greece and Cyprus. A few days have passed since Kilicdaroglu's statements that if the Turkish President does "what he has to do with the Aegean islands" he will support him. The trick worked if you look at the way Erdogan's outburst was covered by the few media outlets sympathetic to the Turkish opposition. It was the first time in several months that they found nothing bad to broadcast. Besides, the show was staged more for them than for the Greeks.
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