This is not the first time that rumours and rumours have surfaced that the Turkish President will proceed with the annexation of the occupied territories to Turkey. We have heard him say many times that his country is bigger than its borders and we have seen him indicate that he feels Cyprus is the 82nd Turkish province. To date, he has not dared to take this step.
First of all, we must make it clear that the chances of this happening in practice are very limited. However, no one is in a position to rule out that there will be no references to it during the Turkish President's illegal visit to the occupied territories on 20 July.
[/P]Two main circumstances could contribute to the announcement of the intention to annex. The upcoming national elections in Turkey in June 2023. In recent weeks, Erdogan has clearly indicated his intention to colour his election campaign with the Cyprus issue and Greek-Turkish relations. He puts them at the forefront mainly to convince nationalist voters to trust him again. He even does it to distract people from the economic crisis plaguing Turkey.
The second occasion is the birthday of the Turkish Republic. October marks the 100th anniversary of the founding of the modern Turkish state and for the past two years we have been well aware that Erdogan wants to celebrate with something... big. This could theoretically be the expansion of his country's borders. Whether we are talking about Cyprus, or about the Aegean islands on the occasion of which his revisionist tendencies were exposed.
One thing is theory and another is practice
For a thousand reasons Erdogan knows that he should not proceed with the annexation of the occupied territories to Turkey. After all, the stark reality is that it is not even in his interest geopolitically and economically. So even if he hints that he will try to do so, he will only do so for prestige
The question is whether he will sacrifice everything for that prestige. With the example of Russia, the international actor has shown that he does not joke about such extreme moves. And the Turkish President needs the international factor today perhaps more than ever.
But this does not mean that as Cyprus we should not take seriously what we have heard in recent days. The analysis of Erdogan's possible moves may give a cushion of security to the Republic, which however should not rest behind it. Warning interventions should be made immediately in all directions and foreign powers should be asked to put pressure on the Turkish President to ask him to rationalize and realize the seriousness of what he is rumored to be considering doing. The Government must not allow the tragedy of Varosha to be repeated.
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