The assessment that Turkey will not proceed to military action against Greece was expressed in statements to the Cyprus News Agency by Lieutenant General (retired) Andreas Andreas Pendras and Major General (retired) Andreas Pendras. Andreas Pendaras and Rear Admiral (ret. Dimitrios Tsailas, calling both the Greek and the Cypriot government to be vigilant.
The two analysts were asked to comment on recent developments in the Aegean Sea with the completion of the Turkish military exercise Efes 2022 and Turkish President Erdogan's statements in extremely high tones against Greece.
Every threat, whether small or big, must be taken seriously, analyzed and decisions must be taken accordingly on how to deal with it, Pendaras said, adding that "we should not get over it by saying that these are Erdogan's words and I think that both Greece and Cyprus are doing this at the moment."
"My personal assessment is that yes, Erdogan will continue these threats on a rhetorical level, but also with actions such as yesterday's landing exercise, which referred to a landing on a Greek island, or with overflights and airspace violations, possibly with searches in waters that Turkey believes belong to its own jurisdiction, but in fact belong to Greece or Cyprus," Mr. Pendras said. Pendaras, estimating at the same time that Turkey will not go to war,
"Turkey will not go that far, for the following reasons: first, Turkey has never attempted military action unless it is certain of success (see Cyprus, Syria, Libya, Nagorno-Karabakh). But Greece is not one of these regions. Turkey is aware of Greece's military strength, it knows that it cannot cope either in the sea or in the air. Moreover, at this time Turkey is isolated on a political level, while Greece has the USA, France, with which it has a defence agreement with a mutual assistance clause, most European countries, if not the entire EU, and the neighbouring Middle Eastern countries (Israel, Egypt) next to it, thus creating a strong deterrent on the part of Greece. We will have a hot summer, but we will not go to war with Turkey," he said. Pendaras replied that Turkey could have created a hot episode in the 2020 crisis with the redeployment of the frigates, which it did not do.
"Turkey may take into account that after 2-3 years Greece will be much better equipped than itself, but now it knows that Greece is much better equipped both in terms of material and personnel," he added.
Regarding the upcoming NATO Summit at the end of June, Pendaras believes that it will not play such a big role in Turkey's decision to attempt anything, while he focused on 2023, the year of presidential elections in Turkey and celebrations of the 100th anniversary of the creation of the modern Turkish state with the Treaty of Lausanne.
"Turkey's strategic goal since Erdogan's rise to power has been to become a regional power by 2023 and hegemonize the Muslim peoples of the region. It has not achieved this so far and wishes a lesser success with the Blue Homeland, Syria, Libya, etc. But as far as the domestic elections are concerned, he wants to stimulate the patriotic and Islamic nationalist sentiment of Turks, because it is the only narrative left for Erdogan, as he has nothing to present on the economy or human rights."
Asked about possible export of tension to Cyprus, which is seen as the weak link in the region, Mr. Pendaras said that there is indeed this risk and in the absence of other successes there is the possibility of Turkey declaring the annexation of the occupied territories and presenting to the Turkish people the growth of Turkey towards the Eastern Mediterranean.
"I think our governments are taking this into account, it is slightly extreme, but actions such as the recent signing of a cooperation protocol and the conversion of the Tympos airport into an internal airport are indications of a possible annexation of the occupied territories. In such a case, Cyprus should use the veto to seek sanctions similar to those imposed on Russia", Pendaras concluded.
Rear Admiral (ret. Dimitrios Tsailas said in turn that although the Efes exercise is held on an annual basis, the difference this year was that it was held with great fanfare and various Turkish allies and NATO observers participated in it.
According to Mr. Chaila, Turkey's recent behavior is part of a broader geopolitical "creative destruction" to create new spheres of influence to regain control of formerly Ottoman-ruled territories. This requires securing access to vital maritime spaces such as the Black Sea, the Aegean and the Eastern Mediterranean, the famous Blue Homeland.
"The Turkish regime has set very high goals beyond its stature, which can be seen in the statements after the Efes exercise. We understand that the main obstacles to all these plans are the island complexes of the Aegean and Cyprus and that is why we see this reaction against Hellenism," he said, adding that Greece's response came in the form of force multipliers, such as the defence agreement with France and the US.
Despite what has been written in this regard, Tsailas stressed that Turkey's actions are not limited to domestic policy considerations. "The Turkish regime has assessed the impact of the war in Ukraine and feels that it has the opportunity to pursue a wide set of revisionist objectives on its borders (Syria, Iraq) and especially in the Aegean and Cyprus. The reaction against the admission of Finland and Sweden to NATO was made in order to put pressure on the allies for a Cyprus settlement that would serve Turkish interests."
"Turkey perceives the present situation as favourable for Greece to extend its territorial waters to 12 nautical miles.m. as the balance of power is beginning to tip in favor of Hellenism in the maritime areas due to the modernization of fighter aircraft and the future acquisition of ultra-modern frigates, as well as the presence of submarines 214 which the Turkish side lacks. Therefore, the high tones against Hellenism are in fact aimed at the European and NATO allies," he stressed.
He said that the above does not affect the need to develop sustainable precision networks from the Greek side along the entire chain of islands facing the Turkish coast, since threats arise on a daily basis, while the Turkish casus belli is still in force.
"All this is creating irritation and insecurity in Turkey, as reflected in the public statements of Turkish officials, which are reminiscent of those of Russian President Vladimir Putin," he said. He added that "prominent voices of Turkish academics and military officers see the Aegean in a manner similar to their Russian counterparts regarding Ukraine, namely as a possible front for a proxy war against the US." "This is why the Erdogan regime is constantly threatening to go one step further because it is challenging Greek sovereignty in the Aegean and will attempt a landing action against Greek islands."
Mr. Tsailas estimated that developments in Libya will affect the balance of power in the Eastern Mediterranean.Asked what could change the situation in the region, he said that a realistic option that could prevent unilateral action by Turkey would be its participation in a permanent multinational naval force in the Mediterranean and the Aegean, which is not possible at present due to Ankara's isolation.
"The only way out is to appeal to the International Court of Justice, which is the direction the entire international community is pushing for."
Source: CNA
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