-
.
- Ελληνικά
Questioning Russian announcements of a partial withdrawal of forces around Ukraine and insisting that an invasion remains possible at any time, The United States is warning Vladimir Putin not to proceed with an illegal recognition of Donbass independence. For its part, the Kremlin at the same time speaks of a "risk of escalation" centred on the breakaway provinces of Donetsk and Luhansk, while Kiev calls for an emergency meeting of the UN Security Council.
Since Ukraine came under Russian military stranglehold, the United States and Britain have repeatedly warned of possible provocations or provocative operations that could be orchestrated by Moscow as a pretext for invading the territory of the former Soviet republic.
With Vladimir Putin adhering to the doctrine of strategic ambiguity and sending conflicting messages, talking about diplomacy and partial military withdrawal, which the West nevertheless does not "see", the resolution of the Kremlin-controlled State Duma has come to further inflame tensions.
U.S. diplomatic chief Anthony Blinken warned today, Wednesday, of a "swift and forceful" response from Washington, in coordination with its allies and partners, should the Russian president ratify the State Duma resolution calling on him to recognize as independent the breakaway provinces of Donetsk and Luhansk in eastern Ukraine.
"Ratification of this resolution would further undermine Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity, would constitute a serious violation of international law, and would further call into question the declared declaration to pursue diplomacy towards a peaceful resolution of the crisis," Anthony Blinken said.
Possible adoption of the resolution would mark the "death knell" of the Minsk peace process, risking ignition at a time when the largest post-Cold War military force remains deployed.
In light of the situation, Ukraine is calling for an emergency UN Security Council meeting on the resolution tomorrow, Thursday, with its foreign minister, Dmytro Kuleba, denouncing the Duma's move as undermining efforts to end the conflict in eastern Ukraine.
"No indication of withdrawal"
Regarding the build-up of Russian military forces on Ukraine's borders, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg says there has been no indication of a de-escalation on the ground; instead, he speaks of military reinforcement and points out that a redeployment of forces is not the same as a withdrawal.
Similarly, U.S. Secretary of State Anthony Blinken reiterated today that the United States has no indication that Russia is withdrawing troops from Ukraine's borders, and reiterated - following Joe Biden's tough talk - that Washington believes a Russian invasion of Ukraine remains possible at any time, even within the week.
"Unfortunately, there is a distance between what Russia is doing and what Russia is saying. And what we're seeing is not a substantial withdrawal. Rather, we're still seeing forces, particularly forces that could be in the vanguard, remaining on the border, massing on the border," he said, speaking to the ABC network.
Analysts suggest it is extremely premature to assess whether the withdrawal of forces that Russia is talking about is substantial and the risk of invasion has passed, given that no further information has been given on which units are returning to their bases and when.
In this regard, the New York Times refers to the withdrawal of units from the western and southern military sectors announced by the Russian Defense Ministry, noting that these are the sectors closest to Ukraine, so troops could be redeployed to the border relatively easily and immediately.
Another big question mark is whether and when the Russian force of 30,000 troops gathered for "exercises" on Belarusian territory will withdraw, encircling Ukraine from the north. Belarusian Foreign Minister Vladimir Makei said today that all Russian troops will leave at the end of the exercises on February 20. A meeting between Vladimir Putin and Alexander Lukashenko is imminent on Friday, to which the Kremlin spokesman referred, presumably for "more news."
Under these circumstances, and while the West as a whole attempts to "decode" Putin's intentions, the European Council in Brussels meets atypically tomorrow, Thursday, on the Ukrainian crisis. The US is in parallel on the open line with Europe, with the US President, Joe Biden, holding talks later in the day with the German Chancellor, Olaf Scholz, following the latter's visit to Moscow.
The tension is further inflamed by the resolution "sent" by the Russian Duma to Vladimir Putin for ratification, calling for the breakaway provinces of Donetsk and Luhansk to be recognised as "sovereign people's republics", a move that would automatically mean the cancellation of the Minsk process, the set of agreements concluded between Russia and Ukraine in 2015 with Franco-German mediation, guaranteeing that the provinces would remain part of Ukraine but with a "special status" - which the two sides are arguing over.
The disagreement over the degree of autonomy of local governments over the decisions of the national government sustains the conflict in eastern Ukraine that has been "counting" for more than eight years.
For its part, the Kremlin says it remains committed to the Minsk agreements, but it is clear that Putin has pulled another negotiating card out of the drawer as he seeks to extract concessions.
Asked about the same issue, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters yesterday that there is currently "no official decision" but that the deputies' request "reflects the opinion of the population" of Russia.
Peskov said Russia has repeatedly demonstrated its commitment to the Minsk peace agreements and continues to want their implementation.
Moscow is "showing" Kiev for possible escalation
Dmitry Peskov warned today of the possibility of an escalation by Ukrainian forces around Donetsk and Luhansk. Asked how likely such a development would be, Peskov replied, as reported by CNNi, that "the risk remains high."
"We draw the attention of our interlocutors in every way to the dangerous concentration of forces [IN UKRAINE] and the fact that a military operation and an attempt to resolve the issue.Both the US and Britain have warned of the possibility of Russian provocation in Donbass as a pretext to justify further invasion of Ukrainian territory."
Both the US and Britain have warned of the possibility of Russian provocation in Donbass as a pretext to justify further invasion of Ukrainian territory.
Everyone is invoking the Minsk agreements
Western governments, including France, Germany and the United States, are putting the Minsk agreements as a possible basis for talks to de-escalate the current crisis by surrounding Ukraine with a huge Russian military force.
And they warn that overall diplomatic efforts could fall apart if the Kremlin "signs off" on the recognition.
The issue was raised by German Chancellor Olaf Scholz at a joint press conference with Vladimir Putin in Moscow yesterday, Tuesday, stressing that it would constitute a violation of the Minsk agreements and the end of the peace process.
"Such a thing would be a violation of these agreements. It would be a political disaster," the German chancellor said, adding that "only when all sides honour the agreements can we move forward."
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg issued a similar warning.[BR]"If this were to happen, it would be a flagrant violation of Ukraine's territory and sovereignty once again," he noted.
Vladimir Putin himself also spoke of a solution in eastern Ukraine on the basis of the Minsk agreements during his press conference with Olaf Solz, in which he also returned to the claim of "genocide" in Donbass.
"Let me add that what is happening right now in Donbass is precisely genocide," he said, adding that to resolve Donbass it is necessary to "start from the possibilities of implementing the Minsk agreements, which have not been fully exploited".
"We are counting heavily on the fact that our partners across the ocean and in Europe, first and foremost Germany and France, will exert the appropriate influence on the current Kiev government and this solution will be found," the Russian president said.
"In case of recognition, Russia would de facto and de jure withdraw from the Minsk agreements with all the consequences."
"In case of recognition, Russia would de facto and de jure withdraw from the Minsk agreements with all the consequences. We have already warned against this position," the head of Ukrainian diplomacy, Dmitry Kuleba, said for his part."
Moscow has for months accused Ukraine of seeking to overturn the Minsk agreements, while the peace process has been de facto halted since the end of 2019. At the same time, it has consistently warned that it will respond if civilians in eastern Ukraine are killed.
European Union condemns
The resolution was also immediately condemned by the European Union.
"The EU strongly condemns the Russian Duma's decision to call on President Putin to recognize the non-government-controlled Donetsk and Luhansk regions of Ukraine as independent entities. This recognition would be a clear violation of the Minsk agreements," said European diplomatic chief, Josep Borrell.
Josep Borrell noted that "the EU's support and commitment to Ukraine's independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity within its internationally recognised borders remains unshaken," adding: "We urge Russia to honour its commitments and engage in good faith in the framework of the Normandy Scheme and the Trilateral Contact Group."
Today, the head of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, criticised Russia for sending contradictory messages, saying that "on the one hand, the authorities announced the withdrawal of Russian troops and, on the other hand, the Duma voted in favour of the official recognition of Donetsk and Luhansk as independent republics".
Russia has also been addressed by the French presidency, urging Vladimir Putin not to move towards recognition of the breakaway provinces in Donbass. "We remain vigilant and we urge [VLADIMIR PUTIN] not to follow up on the Duma's request," a spokesman for President Emmanuel Macron said.
Russia is accused of instigating the conflict and backing separatists, with the war having erupted after Russia annexed the Crimean peninsula following the rise to power of pro-Western politicians in Kiev in early 2014.
Russia has issued more than 700,000 passports to residents of eastern Ukraine since 2014.
Moscow has favored separatist tendencies in several former Soviet republics since the breakup of the USSR, notably by recognizing, after its 2008 lightning war with Georgia, the independence of two pro-Russian regions, South Ossetia and Abkhazia.
Source: cnn.gr
Contents of this article including associated images are belongs Cyprus Times
Views & opinions expressed are those of the author and/or Cyprus Times
Source
