We are in the third week of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Seventeen days of relentless shelling of Ukrainian cities and towns, and over 500 deaths of civilians and thousands of soldiers. All this has forced more than 2.5 million people to flee their country, creating a huge new humanitarian crisis in Europe.
Unfortunately, however, the tragedy has only just begun and is far from over.
The ferocity of the Russian invasion, namely the bombing of major cities such as Kiev and Kharkiv, in the east, clearly "points" to the major objectives of the Russian President, Vladimir Putin: to seize control of Ukraine, with the aim of regime change.
Although its army is much larger than Ukraine's, Russia's apparently wrong strategic decisions and logistical failures, combined with the ferocity of Ukraine's resistance, have prevented its advance. It should be recalled that at first analysts spoke of a "war of a few days", a scenario which it quickly became clear would not correspond to reality.
Ukraine's admirable resistance, which has moved and inspired the entire planet, has not prevented the enormous catastrophe unfolding within the Ukrainian borders.
And despite the pile of sanctions from Ukraine's Western allies, who are effectively waging economic warfare against Moscow, imposing unprecedented sanctions, analysts stress that all of the above... can only get worse.
"Despite the surprisingly poor military performance of the Russian military to date, we are still in the early stages of starting this conflict," Sara Bjerg Moller, assistant professor of international security at Seton Hall University, tells Vox.
Unfortunately, the tragic toll is expected to grow, especially as the Russian offensive intensifies around Ukrainian cities, where bombings and raids have hit civilian targets and as efforts for high-level Ukraine-Russia negotiations have so far failed.
All this as Russian forces appear to be preparing to lay siege to Kiev, with an attack expected any day now...
"This war is about fighting Kiev," says John Spencer, a retired Army officer and chairman of urban warfare studies at the Madison Policy Forum.
Taking Kiev would also mean taking control of Ukraine - or at least removing the government of Volodymyr Zelensky, the Ukrainian president whose refusal to surrender has galvanized Ukrainian resistance. Most experts believe that Russia will prevail sooner or later, especially if it can cut off supplies to Kiev and the Ukrainian resistance.
"Russia's military victory does not mean victory in the war."
However, as Vox's analysis points out, just because Russia may eventually achieve a military victory, it does not mean that it will win this war.
The political, domestic and international costs to Russia could cause tremors and ultimately bring down Putin's regime.
Western sanctions are strangling Russia's economy and could cause permanent damage if they continue for too long. Russia's war has strengthened the Western alliance as never before, but that political will could be tested as energy prices rise and as the war and refugee crisis continue.
"War is never isolated," Zelensky said Thursday. "It always wins both the victim and the aggressor. The aggressor realizes it later. But he always realizes and always suffers."
The dangerous new phase of the war
Russia's strategic setbacks have undermined its mission to occupy Ukraine, but may force Russia to attack with greater ferocity. After all, more than a few Western officials are talking about an imminent chemical attack on Russia's part.
The longer and harder the Ukrainian resistance fights, the more likely Russia will develop more aggressive tactics to try to achieve its goals. "This is what we would call 'war of attrition'. They are trying to crush the morale of the Ukrainian people, and unfortunately, that includes the corpses of Ukrainians," said Moller."
The "urban warfare" is particularly devastating, as civilians who have not had time to evacuate their cities often find themselves in the midst of fighting that occurs within the cities.
Russia's military tactics in cities - such as Syria and Grozny in Chechnya in 1999 - have not included even the slightest respect for the protection of civilians.
As Spencer, an expert on urban warfare, notes, because Putin is constrained - to some extent - by the rules of war, he is likely to argue that civilian infrastructure - such as hospitals - are also military targets. With disastrous consequences.
But civil war is, by its nature, dark and complex and often far more deadly.
Even in the early days of this war, Russia's efforts have had disastrous results. "They are doing terrible damage to civilian infrastructure," said Rachel Denber, deputy director of Europe and Central Asia at Human Rights Watch.
"They are taking many, many civilian lives." Denber pointed to the use of weapons in densely populated areas, including those where attacks are explicitly prohibited.
Human Rights Watch confirmed their use in three residential areas in Kharkiv on February 28.
The United Nations has confirmed at least 1,546 civilian casualties, including 564 deaths as of 10 March, although these numbers are likely undercounted as intense fighting in some areas has made it difficult to verify statistics.
All this is exacerbating the humanitarian disaster in Ukraine, as bombing cuts power stations and other supply lines, effectively trapping people in war zones in sub-zero temperatures without electricity or water and with less food, fuel and medical supplies.
In Mariupol, a city of 400,000 that has been under Russian siege for days, people were reportedly melting snow for drinking water.
Humanitarian groups say the fighting is making it difficult to deliver aid or reach civilians left behind - often elderly or disabled people or other vulnerable populations who have been unable to flee.
Europe faces a huge humanitarian crisis...
Fighting across Ukraine has forced more than 4 million people to flee so far, according to the United Nations. Some 1.9 million people are internally displaced within Ukraine, although tens of thousands of Ukrainians had already been forcibly displaced before Russia's invasion due to the eight-year war in the Donbass region. Many have fled to regions (basically, administrative districts) in western and northwestern Ukraine.
Another 2.5 million Ukrainians have fled, mostly to neighbouring countries such as Poland, Romania and Moldova. This is Europe's largest refugee crisis since World War II, and host countries and aid agencies are struggling to meet the overwhelming needs of these refugees, most of whom are women and children.
Source: in.gr
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