The massacre and atrocities in cities from which Russian forces are withdrawing, mainly outside Kiev, such as in the town of Butchia, have shocked world opinion and the international community and overshadow any attempt at peace in Ukraine after 40 days of Russian invasion.
The shelling and hostilities continued on Sunday, despite ongoing consultations, mostly behind the scenes over the past 24 hours, and with the possibility of a Putin-Zelensky meeting still seemingly not on the horizon. As Moscow made clear yesterday through Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov, a direct meeting of the Russian and Ukrainian presidents will take place only if the two countries' delegations reach a "written agreement" and not "a set of ideas".
Earlier, Kiev had expressed the view that there was significant progress in the negotiations and the two sides had found common ground on critical issues for ending the war, except for the Crimea issue. But there was an immediate denial from Moscow, with Russian chief negotiator Vladimir Medinsk stating that "the draft agreement is not ready to be submitted to a summit" and that "Russia's position on Crimea and Donbass remains unchanged".
On Sunday, Russian attacks continued, with the main targets being the cities of Kharkiv in northeastern Ukraine, Nikolayev, located in the south, and Vasilkiv, 50 kilometers outside Kiev. Russian forces, however, appear to be concentrated in eastern Ukraine, namely in the Donbass regions, as well as in the south, around Kherson, both towards Mariupol and Odessa. Although the Russian army appears to be withdrawing from the Kiev and Chernihiv regions, this does not mean that its operations are not taking place on a broad front. And that they can't come back regrouped.
At the same time the economic war and energy crisis is intensifying, with the Europeans hoping a compromise can be found by mid-April, when they must start paying for Russian gas supplied in rubles, as Vladimir Putin has demanded - and if he insists on his demand.
At the same time the economic war and the energy crisis are intensifying, with the Europeans hoping a compromise can be found by mid-April, when they must start paying for Russian gas supplied in rubles, as Vladimir Putin has requested - and if he insists on his demand. Already Slovakia, for example, has decided to comply with the Kremlin's demand.
For the moment, however, most European countries have rejected the Kremlin's ultimatum, but Moscow did not cut off gas supplies on April 1, the date it set as a deadline for changing the payment method, giving it until the next payments.
The Kremlin is now warning the West that it will stop exports of other products such as grain, the Europeans are pressing, but to no avail Beijing is not supporting Moscow and Joe Biden has made a spectacular decision, announcing that the United States will release 1 million barrels of crude oil from its reserves every day to meet needs and fend off Russian pressure.
Amidst the turmoil of war, the information that has been circulating in the last few 24 hours about the state of health of the Russian president, who is reportedly being monitored by a thyroid cancer specialist doctor - in the space of 166 days, oncologist Yevgeny Selivanov has reportedly visited Vladimir Putin 35 times!
In a gesture of our country's practical support for the struggle of the Ukrainian people, President Volodymyr Zelensky has been invited and will speak via teleconference to the Greek Parliament next Thursday.
Progress in the talks, but still far from an agreement
With the resumption in recent days of direct talks between the Ukrainian and Russian delegations in Istanbul, it appeared for the first time that there is a framework on which a peace solution can be shaped. The Ukrainian delegation appeared with a written text of proposals and this gave the feeling that there is clear progress, albeit still a long way from an agreement.
For many in the West, and for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky himself, it is still uncertain whether Moscow is actually seeking a compromise soon, or using the consultations to regroup its forces after the unexpectedly high number of casualties it is recording on the ground and the strong resistance it has encountered to the invasion. That is why both Washington and London have urged the Ukrainian president not to succumb to pressure and not to make a hasty deal.
Already on Friday, however, Russian President Putin rejected the idea, expressed in a telephone conversation between them, by Tayyip Erdogan, of meeting Mr Zelensky soon. As the Kremlin has long made clear, such a meeting will take place only if an agreement is ready to be signed.
Ukraine is reportedly discussing the adoption of a neutral status - i.e. no NATO membership, no hosting of military bases - provided it receives security guarantees. The plan envisages that guarantor countries would undertake to provide Ukraine with military assistance in the event of an external attack with troops, weapons, and the creation of a no-fly zone. This is essentially the creation of a mechanism that can operate quickly and effectively for the defence and security of the country.
Kiev accepts as guarantors the permanent members of the UN Security Council (France, USA, Britain, China, Russia) as well as countries from a list that includes Turkey, Germany, Canada, Italy, Poland, Israel, among others.
The Ukrainian side is asking for additional security guarantees under NATO's Article 5 and the "collective defence clause", which stipulates that in "an armed attack against one or more of its members", the Alliance will provide protection and security by appropriate means.
On the burning issue of Crimea, Kiev accepts a 15-year consultation period on the status of the region.
Blurred landscape with Russian military ambitions
On the exact development of Russian military operations in Ukraine, no one is yet sure whether Moscow is indeed folding, reducing the fronts and, above all, easing the pressure on Kiev, turning towards the Donbas regions and their connection with Crimea, or is simply buying time with various manoeuvres and regrouping its forces to launch new attacks on the capital and in the north-west of the country, where it believes that the arms aid from the West to the Ukrainians is passing through.
It is clear, however, that everything depends on the course of the negotiations. The Kremlin wants to press Volodymyr Zelensky for more concessions, especially regarding the autonomy or even annexation of Donbass to Russia, and of course the acceptance of Russian sovereignty in Crimea.
Until recently at least, it has not succeeded, due to unexpectedly stiff Ukrainian resistance, but the prevailing assessment is that Russia will not yet back down unless Kiev achieves a capitulation that satisfies many of the key objectives it had when it began its invasion of the country.
Days ago the Kremlin announced it would scale back operations around Kiev, and on Friday Ukrainian authorities found that the Russians were also withdrawing some of their forces from Chernihiv, a strategic town northeast of the capital. There was a similar picture for the town of Khostomel, which is much closer to Kiev, on its north-western side. And the Russian Defense Ministry announced that the military is withdrawing or has already withdrawn from these areas as of March 30.
The United States in particular, but also NATO, as well as Britain, are extremely skeptical about the actual Russian moves on the ground. But in any case, everyone understands, after almost six weeks of invasion, that Moscow's main interest is the control of Donbass, consisting of the regions of Luhansk and Donetsk, the two self-declared separatist "republics" that Vladimir Putin has already recognized as independent. The Kremlin announced a few days ago that it already controls 93% of the former and 54% of the latter.
However, the fighting in these regions is expected to be particularly fierce and lengthy, as Western military analysts point out that the most powerful forces of the Ukrainian army, which has suffered losses so far but also has the experience of years of clashes with the Russian-speaking separatists, are located there.
Following the failure of the Russian army to capture Kharkiv, which is strategically located northwest of Donbass, operations are now turning to two towns on the "borderline" of the eastern regions with the rest of Ukraine: in Izyum, which the Russians have already taken control of, and Slavyansk, which is further south towards Donetsk.
Still further south, the drama of Mariupol is without end. Efforts to open humanitarian corridors have been dramatic in recent days, as has the Red Cross' operation to reach the city, and the evacuation of civilians is being carried out with great difficulty while the Russian army's attacks for complete control continue.
Local authorities estimate that the damage to the city's infrastructure and port may exceed ten billion dollars.
Gas in rubles and grain threats
Even before the situation with Moscow's gas threats and payment in rubles can be assessed, the Kremlin is also putting warnings on the table that it will stop grain exports, with the Europeans appearing determined not to give in to Vladimir Putin's demands and Washington taking unprecedented emergency measures to ensure its energy sufficiency.
Russian officials such as former president and current deputy secretary of the security council Dmitry Medvedev are even talking about ending Russian exports of agricultural products in response to Western sanctions. "We will supply food and agricultural products only to our friends and, fortunately, we have many of them and they are not in Europe or North America at all," was Medvedev's statement.
Moscow's intentions and actual room for maneuver remain unclear at this stage, just as it is unclear at the same time whether and for how long Russia can withstand the wave of economic sanctions imposed by the West. There are more than a few Western analysts who believe that the Russian economy still has strengths and as long as the axis with Beijing holds up, then Vladimir Putin has room to manoeuvre and in any case time for his pursuits in Ukraine.
Significantly, the teleconference between Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and European Council President Charles Michel and Chinese President Xi Jinping on Friday failed to elicit any condemnation from Beijing towards Moscow. China argues that the West and Russia should start a dialogue to solve the accumulated problems and build a new sustainable and balanced security framework - a position that is far from the Western perspective at the moment.
However, the Kremlin now seemed to leave a window of withdrawal on the issue of paying for the gas it sells to Europe in rubles. Moscow has signaled that the change in payment currency will take effect for gas supplies from April 1. Although major countries such as Germany and France have rejected the Russian demand, the flow of gas continues as normal. And this will happen until mid-April or later, when payments for these supplies are to be made. But Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on Friday that "payments can return to the previous regime and be made in euros and dollars in case 'other circumstances' require it!"
Putin's move had been interpreted as a desperate attempt by the Russian president to prop up the ruble, with Berlin, Paris and London making it clear that they would not accept this change.
For his part, Joe Biden announced that the United States would pump one million barrels of oil a day, marking the largest release of emergency reserves to hold down prices.
Source: protothema.gr
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