The "new economic model" will give Turkey a place among the world's top ten economies. At least this is what Recep Tayyip Erdogan claimed, even claiming that this development "is now a near reality and no longer a dream". He once again accused the foreign powers and their collaborators (i.e. the opposition, the Gulenists and the Kurds) of trying to undermine the Justice and Development Party's grand plans for 2023 and 2053 - the 100th anniversary of the establishment of the modern Turkish Republic and the 600th anniversary of the Fall of Istanbul, respectively.
In practice, however, the "rally" in the lira's exchange rate against the dollar and the euro caused in the first few days by Erdogan's announcements to provide state guarantees in case of a further slide seemed to be halted.
The lira retreated yesterday. Yesterday, for good measure, after successive bullish sessions, the Turkish currency retreated by around 8% as markets seemed to be in doubt as to whether this policy could prove sustainable.
Thus, although the exchange rate remains far from historic lows of 18 pounds per dollar (and around 20 per euro), it is still undervalued by more than 35% compared to early 2021. Indeed, many predict that very soon the rapid decline will continue - all the more so as official figures show that Turks are not convinced to convert dollars into pounds: Last Tuesday, two days after Erdogan's announcements, private deposits in "hard" currencies stood at $163.7 billion, almost unchanged from Monday and Friday's $163.8 billion.
At the same time, reports are proliferating that reveal the poverty into which much of the population has sunk. For example, according to a report in le Monde, in Istanbul, queues are growing in the 393 kiosks set up by the city's municipality (controlled by the opposition under Ekrem Imamoglu), where 250-gram loaves of bread are available for 1.25 lire (about 7 euro cents). The "people's bread", as it has been called since the late 1970s, has never been in greater demand, as it now seems to keep millions of people alive. All those who are currently unable to afford even basic foodstuffs because of unemployment, rising prices and inflation, which reached 21% in November and could reach 30% in 2022.
Be patient. These images, however, do not daunt Erdogan, who asks for patience and continues to promise "paradises" while making it clear that he will do as the Koran commands. "Don't expect anything else from me (...) As a Muslim, I will continue to do what the religious teachings require," he said last Sunday afternoon, December 19, announcing the state guarantees for the lira.
"Interest rates make the rich richer and the poor poorer. We will break this vicious cycle and allow our people to achieve the basic goal," he insisted, referring to Turkey's transformation into one of the world's most developed and powerful economies. The truth, of course, is that even if he loses this bet, he and the top AKP leaders will not go hungry...
The opposition is looking for a candidate
Tayyip Erdogan and AKP are constantly and in all tones repeating that the elections will be held normally in 2023 and not prematurely. The opposition, however, is preparing intensively for a possible "surprise", as it considers it likely that the president and the ruling party will try to take it by surprise.
In this context, the head of the Republican People's Party (CHP), Kemal Kılınçdaroglu, was quick to rule out a possible candidacy for the presidency of the mayors of the country's two largest cities. "The president must be a person with the right experience to run the state, which he will lead at a critical time. The names of Mansour Yavas and Ekrem Imamoglu are coming to the fore, but we cannot abandon the governance of Istanbul and Ankara," he said in an interview with Cumhuriyet newspaper.
He added that in case one of them runs for office and is elected, control of the respective city will pass to the AKP, which has a majority in the city councils. "It is something we will not be able to explain to our voters," Kilicdaroglu added. He knows, however, that polls show both Yavas and Imamoglu clearly outperforming Erdogan should they face him in the second round - which means that he and the entire opposition will have to look for a (or a) commonly accepted candidate (Meral Aksener, perhaps?) who has a similar track record.
At the same time, Erdogan is stepping up his smear campaign. "We have to convince our people that Turkey will face the greatest disasters if control of the country passes to them, as we saw in Istanbul after the municipal elections," he said.
In the same context, the country's authorities have launched an investigation against hundreds of Istanbul municipality officials whom they accuse of links to militant organizations, prompting strong criticism from the mayor.
Source: in.gr
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