The Cyprus Composite Leading Economic Inde (CCLEI) recorded a year-over-year increase of 14.8% in Decembe 2021, reaching a level of 115.7, after year-over-year increases of 13.7% in November and 13.1% in October (based on the latest and revised data).
The trend of the year-over-year growth rate of the CCLEI during last quarter of 2021 remains upward. Most of the CCLEI’s domestic and international components contribute to its positive year-over-year performance in December 2021. More specifically, the Economic Sentiment Indicators (ESI) in Cyprus and the euro area strengthened in December 2021 compared to December 2020 amid the strengthening of confidence in all business sectors, and in particular, the services sector. The high positive year-over-year growth rate of the total number of property sales contracts and the positive year-over-year growth rate of the temperature-adjusted volume of electricity production in December 2021 exert a corresponding positive effect on the CCLEI and domestic economic activity. The same applies to credit card transactions. In addition, according to preliminary data in December, tourist arrivals and the volume of retail sales continue to yield a positive effect on the CCLEI. In contrast, the Brent Crude oil price contributes to the restraint of the year-over-year growth of the CCLEI in December, marking an increase in December 2021 compared to December 2020.
In summary, the positive year-over-year growth rate of the CCLEI during the last quarter of 2021 indicates the continuation of the Cypriot economy recovery. Nevertheless, the continued domestic and international restrictive measures to curb the various mutations of the pandemic and their effects are aggravating factors in the short-term prospects of the international and Cypriot economy. Further information regarding the methodology of constructing the CCLEI can be found at: Cyprus Composite Leading Economic Index (CCLEI)
Notes:
- The CCLEI Index is estimated based on the econometric model of Aruoba, Diebold and Scotti (ADS) (2009).
- The CCLEI for December 2021 is constructed based on the availability of the Brent Crude oil price, the ESI in the euro area and in Cyprus, the total number of property sales contracts, the value of credit card transactions, as well as the high frequency data of the passengers’ arrivals and the temperature-adjusted volume of electricity production for December, while the retail sales volume is estimated based on the latest available information in a series of various economic indicators.
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