Vladimir Putin's limited patience and the unexpectedly slow march towards the total subjugation of Ukraine are seen as the critical factors for Russia's risk of nuclear weapons engagement. The latter has the most powerful nuclear war machine on the planet and is headed by a man who convinces every day that he would not hesitate to press the ideal 'red button' that would bring atomic energy-based weapons of mass destruction into battle.
Putin has already, on the one hand, informed the world that he has set - albeit in an inscrutable, enigmatic way - a higher level of war readiness (two more remain until the actual use) for weapons of "deterrence", as the Russian leader euphemistically calls nuclear weapons.
On the other hand, Vladimir Putin is threatening to retaliate against every country that has expressed its intention to assist Ukraine or has already done so, such as Greece. In this way, Putin is courting a regression of Russia into a state of international isolation and the revival of the Warsaw Pact as a rival to NATO. The catalyst for the use of nuclear means of aggression is, according to expert analysts, how quickly Putin's reserves of patience will be exhausted.
The example of Chechnya and the annexation of Crimea to Russia is cited in this context: whenever events do not turn out as Putin imagined, his reaction is monolithic: Escalating violence and attacks on urban centers, ignoring civilians."
"We are only in the first days of the war, and Putin still holds many cards he has not put on the table" comments Douglas Lute in the New York Times. Lute is a U.S. Army general and U.S. ambassador to NATO. He points out that "it is too early to triumph because the conquest of Ukraine is proving far more difficult and time-consuming than Putin expected. There are still many capabilities that Russia possesses that have not been used so far."
General Lyut also points out that "so far, Russia's war machine has not reached a high level of efficiency and utilization of its power. But it is always open to the possibility that the Russians could get serious, which would bring about massive attacks on urban centers." And, nuclear weapons are the most effective weapon against the civilian population.
The BBC's own analysis focuses on the risk of an accident. That is, while at this stage it means its reference to nuclear weapons only as a pre-emptive threat, "no one knows what would happen if either side misjudged the strength and intentions of the opponent." So the West is consciously trying not to incur Putin's wrath. Britain, for example, has nuclear submarines, the existence of which is concealed so as not to arouse Vladimir Putin's anger. Especially since the conquest campaign against Ukraine does not justify, in terms of speed and comfort, the expectations of the Russian leader.
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