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Prospect of a fourth dose is raised in the UK by the UK Health Security Agency's (UKHSA) study showing yes, the Omicron variant is milder than Delta, but also that the protection against Omicron infection offered by the booster dose is progressively diminishing.
The largest study to date on real-world data in the UK. UK, published on Thursday, showed that protection against simple symptomatic infection from the booster dose declines by 15-20% ten weeks after vaccination.
Those who initially received two doses of AstraZeneca's vaccine and then a booster dose of the Pfizer or Moderna formulation gain 60% protection against Omicron at two to four weeks after the third dose. After ten weeks, however, this protection is reduced to 35% for the Pfizer vaccine and 45% for Moderna.
Those given three doses of Pfizer have 70% protection against simple infection, dropping to 45% after ten weeks.
The best protection comes from combining two doses of Pfizer with a third dose of Moderna, as it is maintained at 75% for nine weeks.
Scientists estimate, however, that protection against severe infection and hospitalisation lasts longer.
According to the Times, the Unified Commission for Vaccination and Immunisation responsible for vaccinations is "monitoring the situation very closely", and a government source says the vaccination schedule is "flexible" and could include a fourth dose. "It is something for which there is obviously a possibility and for which we are preparing, but our priority is to complete the current booster dose programme," the source added."
The same UKHSA study showed that the probability of hospital admission for Omicron carriers is between 50% and 70% lower than for those with the Delta variant.
They are also 31-45% less likely to need to go to A&E for tests.
However, the SAGE scientific backbench advising the Government estimated at a meeting on Sunday that Omicron might need to be 90% milder than Delta to avoid an unmanageable strain on the NHS health system from increased hospitalisations. This assessment is based on the no further action scenario and the assumption that people will not show caution by making practical changes to their behaviour.
It should be noted that Thursday saw a new record number of coronavirus cases in the country with almost 120.000, while the Office for National Statistics estimated that in the week of 9-16 December there were 1.4 million COVID carriers in the UK.
The UKHSA also found that Omicron causes more reinfections than Delta. 9.5% of all Omicron cases are reinfection cases.
Of the 132 hospitalised carriers of the new variant by 20 December, 17 had had all three doses, 74 had had two doses and 27 were unvaccinated.
Source: CNA
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