The pandemic of the new coronavirus caused more than 18 million deaths worldwide from the beginning of 2020 to the end of 2021, or more than three times the official count, according to a study published today in The Lancet.
Official statistics on deaths due to COVID-19 give only a partial picture of the true account of pandemic mortality around the world, the study authors point out. COVID-19 was probably one of the leading causes of death in 2020 and 2021 on the planet, they estimate.
Although official figures put global deaths due to the pandemic between 1 January 2020 and 31 December 2021 at 5.94 million, several studies have characterized this account as a gross underestimate and have attempted to shed more light on the health crisis.
The most recent, the one published today by Lancet, estimates that the number of deaths due to COVID-19 in this period reached 18.2 million, that is, that it was more than three times the official account, based on excess mortality data.
The term excess mortality refers to the ratio of deaths in a given time period, regardless of cause, to the number of deaths expected, based on data for previous similar time periods.
In addition to a database of excess mortality, the authors of the study also built several models to predict what mortality would have been had the pandemic not occurred, to compensate for the lack of comprehensive and reliable data in several countries. Of the 12.3 million additional deaths over the counted deaths due to COVID-19, much of them were likely due to SARS-CoV-2 infection, they note.
The chaotic difference between excess mortality and officially recorded deaths due to COVID-19 is likely explained by the failure to diagnose many cases of coronavirus infection and/or increased deaths from other diseases because of changing behaviors or reduced access to health systems due to the pandemic, the researchers also note.
By region, Andean countries in Latin America, eastern and central European countries, and southern sub-Saharan Africa recorded the highest rates of excess mortality in 2020-2021. Among the countries hardest hit by the pandemic, Bolivia recorded the highest excess mortality rate. In contrast, in countries such as Australia and New Zealand, excess mortality appears to be lower than in the years before the pandemic broke out.
The authors of the study acknowledge that their work has some limitations and consider it necessary to continue scientific work to determine exactly what the excess mortality directly attributable to COVID-19 is. Among other studies, the weekly magazine The Economist published in mid-November an estimate of 17 million deaths in the pandemic worldwide, based primarily on the database of two researchers.
The World Health Organization estimates at this stage, taking into account the excess mortality directly and indirectly linked to the pandemic, that the actual death toll in the world may be double to triple the official figure.
Source: CNA
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