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The emergence and rapid spread of the Omicron variant reminds us that not only is the pandemic not over, but that a new cycle, that of its prevalence, is beginning.
As the new strain and the uncertainty surrounding it spreads, governments are again being asked to make difficult decisions by reintroducing measures and restrictions.
At the same time, preliminary results for Omicron tend to allay concerns about the "identity" of the new strain, with the World Health Organization (WHO) stating that 3-4 more weeks are needed to determine its severity.[/B] What can be said, however, as of now is that a new wave of the virus is expected in Europe, with a significant increase in infections and Omicron prevalence by early 2022.
But is there something different about this wave from previous ones that brings us closer to the end of the pandemic?
Experts seem to have such a belief and explain "why".
gzeromedia[/B] asks Eurasia Group health expert Sot Rosenstein, who clarifies the following:
There are three big questions about the Omicron variant, but we have adequate information on two of them.
Transmissibility
The Omicron strain is spreading rapidly and it is difficult to see anything that will stop it. It is rapidly dominating the Delta variant in the US, UK, Denmark and probably many other countries in the coming weeks.
Vaccines
All vaccines, but especially mRNA, still seem to reduce the risk of serious illness and death, even without a booster dose; although less so than with previous variants. However, because they struggle against a highly contagious variant that can enter through the nose before the immune system has time to respond, a booster dose of mRNA vaccine (and possibly others) should restore protection against even mild infection and transmission. But for how long is unclear.
Severity
This is the most difficult parameter for which we do not have good information and takes the longest to answer. There is already a cottage industry of hot products out there. My lukewarm view has always been that this question would take the longest to answer. As Rosenstein points out, we still can't really answer definitively about the severity of Delta, which showed lower hospitalization and death rates per case in places with high levels of vaccination or prior infection, even though the variant itself is probably not substantially less severe.
For Omicron, something similar could also be true. However, it appears that South Africa is experiencing a less severe outbreak. And there is evidence that it reproduces less well in the lungs. Both of these data are encouraging, but the truth is that we just don't have yet, and won't for at least a few more weeks, data from other countries.[BR]South Africa vs rich countries
We have to be very careful about generalizing the South African experience - the demographic and epidemiological profile there is very specific.
The longer the pandemic lasts, the more divisive it becomes politically
The longer the pandemic lasts, the more divisive it becomes politically, which undermines coordinated and evidence-based policymaking.
In general, rich countries may be able to cushion the blow of additional disruption with more fiscal support, but the political environment for this to happen continues to deteriorate. Less wealthy countries do not even have that luxury.
The mandatory vaccination approach will not change, but it will become more complicated
Many countries have decided that mandatory vaccination is the best of a number of bad options for limiting the spread of the virus. That position is unlikely to change, but will become more complicated with questions about what constitutes a "fully vaccinated" person and which vaccines qualify under mandatory.
Schools remain a sensitive issue
Some are likely to be able to remain open safely, thanks to testing, ventilation, vaccinations and small class sizes. Some can stay open, but not all, and a blanket "keep all schools open" policy would ignore those with lower resources where many children return home to multigenerational households and grandparents care for children because parents have to work.
Omicron leads us more quickly to the world where coronavirus "morphs" into an endemic virus
The most optimistic scenario remains possible in the medium term. So this variant leads to far less hospital stress than previous waves and builds a wall of immunity against serious disease high enough to keep hospitals from overflowing again.
"If there's blood, it sells," is a saying that many media outlets love, Rosenstein says, adding that one of the interesting things about this pandemic is that there is incredible demand for good news. But this can (again) lead to a false sense of security and the illusion that the mission is over. So caution is needed.
Will its prevalence signal the beginning of the end?
The transmission of the Omicron variant is much faster, but the data show that the disease is milder in those who are fully vaccinated, doctor and Dean of the University of Athens, Athanasios Dimopoulos told SKAI.
Recent data from South Africa showed a decline in cases, while recent studies from Hong Kong showed that this strain has a greater tendency to enter upper respiratory cells and less into lung cells.
As Demopoulos explained, this means that it causes what the common cold does and not so much pneumonia. Also, the symptoms manifested by the Omicron infection are almost identical to those of the common cold.
The doctor said that in the coming days we will see an increase in cases. The hospitalizations, however, are not proportional to the number of cases and have a shorter duration, so we are dealing with a milder virus.
As to when the end of the pandemic will come, Mr. Demopoulos said."
Finally, he said that Pfizer and Merck's antiviral drugs are highly effective."
Source: in.gr
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