There is a "favourable climate" and a "window of opportunity" is opening for Nicosia to impose sanctions on Turkey because of the developments with Russia's invasion of Ukraine, say Professors Ioannis Mazis and Konstantinos Grivas. We need to harness our geopolitical potential as "we are swayed by heterodoxy and procrastination about windows of opportunity" vis-à-vis Turkey, notes retired Major General Stefanos Karavidas.
In an interview with CNA, Mr. Mazis, Mr. Grivas and Mr. Karavidas refer to the impact of the crisis, both at the European level and in the SE Mediterranean region, and say that Greece and the Republic of Cyprus can claim a new geopolitical role.
"We must lead to an immediate denunciation of Turkey and a demand from the sensitized EU and NATO to impose sanctions of similar quality on Turkey for the war crimes it has committed in imitation of Russian barbarism [IN UKRAINE] - in Cyprus," says Professor Ioannis Mazis, Chairman of the Department of Turkish and Contemporary Asian Studies, School of Economics and Political Sciences, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens.
Among other things, he reiterates his proposal for the creation of a sub-NATO enclave under the control and coordination of France. At the same time, he proposes that "the Republic of Cyprus should apply to become a member of NATO", the organisation that is currently presented by part of the international community as "the only means of resistance of the West to the hegemonisms of Russia and possibly China in the future".
By joining NATO, he continues, the Turkish Cypriot community will be able to come under the protection of the North Atlantic Alliance, while "occupation troops will be withdrawn" and British bases will be able to become NATO bases. He goes on to say that all this is positive for peace, security and cooperation in the SE Mediterranean.
With regard to the proposal to create a sub-NATO enclave between Greece-Cyprus-Israel-Egypt, Mr. Mazis notes that this would enjoy the coordination of France, the only, as he says, European nuclear power with "expressed and clear interests in the Mediterranean", would be complementary to NATO, but would produce real security.
He also referred to the recent Franco-Greek defence agreement, with a defence assistance clause, and reiterated his proposal to create conditions for the deployment of autonomous French bases in Cyprus, which he said would contribute to Cyprus' defence. "These should be a policy objective of the Greek and Cypriot governments," Mazis says, adding that relations with Israel and Egypt should be constantly deepened in every area.
In response to a question, Mazis says Turkey is emerging from the developments in Ukraine in a better position "because Athens and Nicosia together allow it to do so."
In response to a question, Mazis says Turkey is emerging from the developments in Ukraine in a better position "because Athens and Nicosia together allow it to do so. He speaks of the "defiantly strong analogy" between the Russian invasion of Ukraine and Turkey's invasion of Cyprus in 1974. Russia, like Turkey before it, invades, creates dead people, a pseudo-state, displaced persons, he says, and speaks of war crimes. "In the case of Ukraine, we see the European public opinion, the NATO machine, Washington, Britain being sensitized," which, he said, is positive.
At the same time, he speaks of a favorable climate for Nicosia in relation to the imposition of sanctions on Turkey, despite "theories that sanctions are not an end in themselves for Cyprus," as he says.
At the same time, he speaks of a favorable climate for Nicosia in relation to the imposition of sanctions on Turkey, despite the "theories that sanctions are not an end in themselves for Cyprus."
At the same time, he speaks of a favorable climate for Cyprus. In this way, he continues, the "immersion in the pool of Siloam of Turkey, which will soon appear as a peacemaking force" in Ukraine is cut off.
If a confederal solution is created in Ukraine, with independent states under the control of Turkey, Mazis does not rule out the application of this model in Cyprus.
Konstantinos Grivas, Professor of Geopolitics and Modern Military Technologies, Director of the Department of War Theory and Analysis at the Evelpidon Military School, who also teaches Geography of Security in the Greater Middle East at the Department of Turkish and Modern Asian Studies at the University of Athens, says that in the new international system that is taking shape, Greece and the Republic of Cyprus are in a key position and can claim a new geopolitical role for the benefit of the architecture to which they belong.
The Governments of Greece and Cyprus seem "unwilling to take advantage of an extraordinary window of opportunity, literally once in a thousand years" in relation to sanctions.
As he says, the Greek side exalts the enforcement of international law "but at the same time there is no mention of the ongoing, violent violation of international law and the ongoing crime against humanity that is taking place today in Cyprus" or of what is happening in the Aegean.
He also expressed the view that "it was the ideal moment to move to extend the territorial sea to 12 nautical miles," deconstructing the casus beli of Turkey, which, he said, "could not implement it."
Grivas also notes Germany's rearmament, among the developments recorded since the beginning of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. "This is automatically a major challenge to European unity, as it means that anti-German reflexes are being activated from many directions," he says. He explains that even countries considered to be in Germany's sphere of influence, such as the Netherlands, would be highly suspicious of a massive rearmament by Berlin.
To avoid deconstructing European unification, rearmament should be in the context of a common European effort, he says. As a matter of fact, he continues, the Franco-German axis is strengthened, as we are talking about joint defence programmes. We will go a step beyond the Permanent Structured Cooperation (PESCO), he believes, and says that the Franco-German approach through the Franco-German relationship can also mean a reboot of Greek-German relations. The retired Major General and flight instructor in the United Arab Emirates, Stefanos Karavidas, notes that recent events in Ukraine confirm the shift to "classical Thucydidean realism" where power plays a dominant role. We have to get away from the old illusions and face reality with blunt realism, he says, adding that "we cannot afford to fall behind in the arms program."
On Germany's rearmament, he says that the recent announcement of the 100 billion "mammoth program" is the quid pro quo for breaking energy relations with Russia. "This brings many developments, which can be both dangerous and promising for something better in terms of Europe's collective future," he continues.
On Greece, he says it is not a country lacking in capabilities and refers to it as a "military giant," noting that Athens has more than 1,400 tanks, compared to Germany's 250 and France's 400.
The Republic of Cyprus "must come out of a long period of armament inactivity" he continues, noting in particular the plan to create a geopolitical hub, in Mari, with energy projects such as EastMed which "we must not stop putting it in the public debate", EuroAsia and EuroAfrica Interconnector. This plan, which potentially includes the naval base, must be protected through defence systems, he says.
According to Karavidas, "we should not have phobic syndromes about the capabilities of Turkish armed forces" as "Turkey is projecting more power than it really has, convincing society in both Greece and Cyprus."
We need to exploit our geopolitical potential as "we are swayed by heterodoxy and procrastination about windows of opportunity" vis-à-vis Turkey, he says.
Asked about the use of unmanned aerial vehicles or drones - such as the Turkish-made Bajrakatar - and how they change the balance on the battlefield, Karavidas calls them "exaggerations" and "Turkish propaganda" in relation to their use in Libya and Nagorno-Karabakh. "In Ukraine respectively we saw that the footprint was not the same. The Bajraktars were destroyed on the ground from the start and it took at least two confirmed - maybe more - transfers to replenish" the drones from Turkey to Ukraine, he said.
He went on to say that drones have limited operational use and are "substitutes for fighter aircraft" as the twin-engine types of drones "Akinci" and "Ak Sungyur" are large-sized aircraft, which are slow compared to a fighter. Asked about the possibility of creating a base for Turkish drones in occupied Lefkoniko, Karavidas says he is not afraid of their presence here.
We have to make sure we become attractive and prove that we can become the frontline of Western architecture, he concludes.
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