Although many believe that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's rule is coming to an end, that is not exactly the case, as academics analyzed academics at the Parliamentary Committee on Foreign and European Affairs on Tuesday.
Dr Konstantinos Philis, Professor of International Relations at Panteion University and Dr Nikos Moudouros, lecturer at the Department of Turkish and Middle Eastern Studies at the University of Cyprus were invited to attend the committee meeting for a discussion on Turkey's internal situation and the impact on its policy.
The two academics analysed the situation in today's Turkey for the members of the Commission and a discussion followed at the suggestion of the Chairman of the Commission, Harris Georgiades, who said that this was the second hearing since last autumn on issues related to Turkey. He expressed the view that the role of the Commission is to monitor developments in Turkey.
He said it was his intention to continue this debate with the active participation of elected members of the academic community. "It is an opportunity for the House of Representatives and especially the Foreign Affairs Committee to establish a close relationship with experts in Turkish policy analysis," Georgiades said. He did not rule out a publication of what has been discussed at the end of this round of hearings.
In his own analysis, Moudouros raised some questions, such as what makes Erdogan's rule reproduce itself for so many years.
He said that today, the opposition for the past three months, namely the Republican People's Party and Meral Aksener's Good Party, which officially have the opposition alliance, believe that Erdogan's cycle of power has ended and express this with great ease, as do alternative media outlets in Turkey. At the same time, however, although polls show a steady descent of the ruling coalition, namely the Justice and Development Party (AKP) and the Nationalist Action Party, the AKP is still at 30%.
He gave a historical review of how the AKP managed to gain the support of all the traditional historical currents that have been born in modern Turkey, in the right wing and how Erdogan managed to keep his popularity through economic policies as well.
Referring to the upcoming elections in Turkey in 2023, Moudouros said that as far as the immediate future is concerned, there are some issues to be concerned about. Among them is Erdogan's need to restrain and the "worried conservatives" who are those who have depended, to a very large extent, on some concessions of power and who realize that perhaps the end is coming but cannot see the alternative yet. It is important what this group will do, he added.
Urbanization is another factor, since Turkey has changed in the last 20 years, with about 85 percent of its population living in large urban centers. This has brought changes and new social phenomena, a result of Erdogan's own government, which now seems to be challenged, he said.
He also said that the AKP has ceased to have the characteristics of a political party and is now a party that is being nationalized, and a huge 11.5 million-member apparatus.
In his turn, Dr. Filis also pointed out that the Greek media is cultivating the feeling that it is a matter of time that Erdogan will lose the elections, but the truth is far from what many believe, since the damage he has suffered after 20 years is much less than many believe.
Erdogan, he said, has many arrows in his quiver for the electoral battle, and although his system is showing signs of decline, this is not reflected in the polls. At the moment, Erdogan needs 51% to win the election, but he is starting from a figure of about 40%, while the opposition candidate is starting from scratch since no personality has yet been found who can stand up to him, he said.
For Filis, the decisive factor that will largely decide the election is the Kurdish vote, noting that there is a misconception that they traditionally vote only for the pro-Kurdish Philo-Kurdish Labour Party, which is unlikely to be found in the next election. Kurds overwhelmingly voted for AKP because they are the conservative and religious voters who supported the party.
If Kurds decide not to vote for the opposition candidate, not necessarily to vote for Erdogan, it will probably give him victory in the election, he said.
He also mentioned youth as another important factor, since about 8 million young voters will vote for the first time in the 2023 elections, which is a problem for the AKP, he said, since for a young voter the incumbent is Erdogan and many times young people vote antisystemically. In the polls, the AKP has a 12% resonance among young people and this is one of the biggest issues it will face, the professor said.
He also referred to a recent poll which showed that 60% of Turks identify themselves as conservative, patriotic/nationalist whereupon, he said, any leader will have to build on that base.
Filis also discussed Erdogan's moves to normalize foreign relations with all states except Greece and Cyprus and Ankara's actions in the maritime areas of Nicosia and Athens. He said that they show that Turkey in 2019-2020 decided through hostile actions and deeds to establish its presence in the region in the way it wants. From 2021 onwards, he added, it is trying to correct the mistakes of the previous years regarding the relationship with neighboring states such as Israel and Egypt since it wants to transform it into something it can offer to the Americans.
He also cited information that there are processes between the United States and Turkey, and the State Department leadership has an approach to Turkey's role that harkens back to the 1990s for a strong Turkey, a bulwark against Russian influence. Because it is hard for Erdogan to win without U.S. support, he said, Turkey has lately been mending those ties to convince Americans that it can offer the U.S. a great deal."
Source: CNA
Contents of this article including associated images are belongs Cyprus Times
Views & opinions expressed are those of the author and/or Cyprus Times
Source
