In Moscow, today 14.01, special envoys from Turkey and Armenia are meeting to discuss the normalization of bilateral relations. On the negotiating table, which will be Russian-coordinated and this has its own significance - will be an old Turkish dream, the Zangezur Corridor, which would open Turkey's way through the Caspian Sea to Central Asia. Since the dissolution of the Soviet Union, Turkey has sought to become a leading power there and to create zones of political and economic dominance in historic "Turkistan", from eastern Turkey through the Caucasus countries of Armenia and Azerbaijan to the Caspian Sea, and from there to Central Asia in Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan.
Big interests from the Zangezur Corridor
"Ankara has long dreamed of a Turkish Silk Road," Emin Sirin, a former member of parliament in Erdogan's AKP party and now a TV commentator and columnist, tells the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung. "Turkey is in a position to open a route to Central Asia that does not go through Russia and Iran. After a successful foreign policy based on military means, the time has now come to seek dialogue to achieve foreign policy goals, and this is especially true for Central Asia."
The Turkish journalist argues that this has nothing to do with dreams of a great Turkey, but much more to do with economic interests in the region. "The market there offers enormous potential," he points out. Stefan Meister, from the German Society for Foreign Policy, speaking to FAZ, underlines that Turkish ambitions are not endorsed by Moscow and Tehran, which retain influence and have mainly Russian interests in the Caucasus and the former Soviet countries of Central Asia. Recall that after the war in the Caucasus in 2020, an armistice agreement was signed, which provided for the creation of the corridor in Zangezur under Russian supervision. That is, Russian armed forces, not Turkish, will guarantee the free passage. "Ankara will remain dependent in this highly strategic project on Moscow's goodwill."
Armenia also has major interests in this corridor. After losing the war in 2020, it is almost entirely dependent on Russia, and its supply is entirely via Georgia and Iran. "The country needs an open border with Turkey; that's where Armenian Prime Minister Nicole Pashinian sees an opportunity unfolding," notes Stefan Meister in FAZ. "Even if because of the defeat in the Caucasus he seems to be politically finished, he could still hold on to power, and there the Armenian president sees an opportunity, to present his people with a success to survive politically. Armenia urgently needs counterweights to the domination of superpower Russia, Armenia's sovereignty passes through the opening of the border with Turkey." Therefore, the ice-breaking attempted under Moscow's supervision seems to be as close as ever. Perhaps even reconciliation.
Relaxation also in Turkey-US relations?
For the Rheinische Post there is another motive for Turkey's rapprochement with Armenia. As the columnist points out, Ankara-US relations are in crisis for the first time in years and have gotten even worse since Joe Biden became US president. "Biden is the first US president to officially recognise the Armenian genocide, and last year he even called on his Turkish counterpart to open its borders with the country.Now Ankara is hoping that any normalisation with Armenia could help ease relations with the US as well," the newspaper speculates.
The French agency's correspondent describes in a very typical way the atmosphere in the Turkish town of Akaya, at the northeasternmost tip of the country, last stop on the way to Armenia, "where only birds and stray dogs sit on the railway tracks, 10 kilometres from the Armenian border, and the mountains are laden with snow". The director of the Akaya Merchants' Union says that since the border was closed the region has turned into the country's dead triangle. "The border (with Armenia) is our only door to the outside."
Will the first direct contacts between the two envoys in Moscow open that door? "There is no guarantee for the success of this initiative," the Rheinische Post points out. "Because possible resistance by Turkish nationalists against the border opening or any resurgence of the Karabakh conflict could put an end to the negotiation process. Tensions between Armenia and Azerbaijan had already risen shortly before the start of the talks in Moscow when three soldiers were killed in skirmishes in the Karabakh region. The two countries blamed each other for the escalation."
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