If it is not "the phone call of the 21st century" determining the balance of the global power distribution from now on, today's phone call between US President Joe Biden and the seventh President of the People's Republic of China, Xi Jinping, has captured the world's attention, as its content will largely determine the course of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
International arbiter
This is because, three weeks after the Russian attack on Ukrainian territory, Beijing is being asked to make a definitive choice of sides, irrevocably choosing between the West or Moscow. In the days leading up to the Russian invasion on February 24, Beijing exercised a "delicate balance", avoiding outright condemnation of the attack but asking all sides to show "maximum restraint". In the same vein, President Xi Jinping did not position himself on the issue "in the heat of the moment", but let some days pass before publicly commenting on his ally Vladimir Putin's move to threaten Ukraine's sovereignty during a teleconference with French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz.
The "unbreakable friendship", after all, between the leaders of Russia and China was only recently forged in a 5,000-word "manifesto" that they co-signed on the days of this year's Beijing Olympics, just weeks before the Russian Armed Forces began operating in Ukraine. This timing, coupled with the fact that the trip to Beijing was one of the Russian president's few trips abroad this year, reinforced speculation that Xi Jinping was fully aware of his Russian counterpart's plans at a time when bilateral relations between the two countries are at "unprecedented levels," as both said after their joint meeting in the Chinese capital.
Open cards
Since then, in China's vacillating stance on the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the West has taken a wait-and-see attitude, with the White House, however, pushing Beijing today to clarify its stance on the Russian president's agenda. That at least is implied by the White House announcement of today's conference call, noting that "the two leaders will discuss managing the rivalry between our two countries, as well as Russia's war against Ukraine and other issues of mutual interest."
Intensifying the pressure
In fact, the escalation attempted in recent days by Washington, both with the US President's choice to call Vladimir Putin a "war criminal" and with the announcement of a new package - a mammoth 13.6 billion euro package - is a major step forward. by announcing a new package of USD 13.6 billion for military support for Ukraine, is aimed at pushing Moscow towards a solution to the problem it has created, while at the same time putting unbearable pressure on the Russian population through economic sanctions of unprecedented intensity.
"Consequences" for China
But Beijing itself is also threatened with economic sanctions if it attempts to provide military or economic aid to Moscow. Already, major US news networks were reporting last Sunday that Russia had requested military assistance from Beijing, and the following day White House National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan met for seven hours in Rome with Chinese Senior Foreign Policy Advisor Yang Jiechi, reportedly making it clear to him that there would be "consequences" should China rush to Russia's aid.
"Great concern"
The level of alarm on the other side of the Atlantic towards China's next moves is, in any case, high, as the White House yesterday made no secret of its "great concern" at the possibility of a full Moscow-Beijing alignment, starting with the military aspect of the invasion of Ukraine. In this light, sources close to the Oval Office report that President Biden will be forthright and willing to criticize his Chinese counterpart today, while White House Spokeswoman Jen Psaki commented meaningfully yesterday that the fact that China has not condemned Russia's actions "says a lot".
"We are concerned that they are considering directly assisting Russia with military equipment to be used in Ukraine," State Department chief Anthony Blinken also said during a briefing for reporters yesterday, adding that the US President "will make clear that China will bear responsibility for any actions it takes to support Russia's aggression, and we will not hesitate to impose costs" on the Chinese President during their conversation today.
US fears of any direct Chinese military assistance to Russia, given the high level of US intelligence (as was amply demonstrated in the Russian invasion of Ukraine) are probably on solid ground, given that China has adopted the Russian argument about the existence of biological weapons laboratories in Ukraine.
Specifically, China's official Xinhua news agency, citing the Russian Defense Ministry, reported that, according to documents, at a laboratory in Kharkiv, the Ukrainians were conducting systematic secret research to study ways of transmitting pathogens from bats to humans, under the direct supervision of American experts. Moreover, Beijing also seems to support Russian propaganda in the media about the invasion of Ukraine, following the measures taken by the West against the "information war" that is going on in parallel with the military conflict.
The US offer
Given these facts, the White House is expected to challenge China to fully clarify its attitude towards Russia, choosing between sanctions and the West. As the signs of pressure on the Russian economy are now visible after the "retaliation" by the US and its Western allies, in the event of practical support from Beijing for Moscow, it is almost predictable that China will face similar or even heavier economic sanctions from the West, due to the large size of the Chinese economy.
Things for Beijing, however, may deteriorate further in the event that it closes the gap with Moscow, as in such a case the "economic war" raging with the US, which in terms of tariffs has been going on since the Trump presidency and continues under the Biden presidency, acting as a brake on the growth of the Chinese economy, would be intensified. On the contrary, Beijing's rapprochement with the West would pave the way for any normalisation of US-China bilateral relations, at least in the economic and trade fields, allowing further penetration of the Chinese economy into international markets.
China's risks
In the event, however, that China refuses to condemn the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the landscape for Beijing would become even more foggy as to its national objectives. In particular, China will be asked to take a number of risks if it ultimately chooses to assist Russia after today's phone call, with a major impact on its national interests. Among them. China's trade volume with the West is more than double that of Russia (2% of China's total trade volume), so if Beijing aligns itself with Putin's policy, trade ties with the West will break down, meaning huge losses,[BR]3. Support for Russia will automatically mean the international isolation of the country, contributing to the deterioration of its international image as an authoritarian regime,[BR]4.
Helping Moscow will increase the sense of insecurity in smaller, neighbouring or regional countries in relation to China, which will inevitably align themselves with its economic and military rival, namely the US. This is also suggested by the speed with which Australia, Japan, New Zealand, Singapore and South Korea have imposed sanctions against Russia. The security deficit will cause a strengthening of Western influence in these countries and antagonism in China, as in the case of Taiwan.[5] The US will be forced to further strengthen its presence in the Indo-Pacific (as it had initiated by withdrawing from Afghanistan) in an attempt to counterbalance the security deficit from the Russia-China axis.
Sino-Russian embrace
Conversely, if the Russia-China bilateral relationship leads to the latter's military support on the Ukrainian front, Beijing will reap some short-term benefits, which can in no way alleviate the overall losses caused by Western sanctions. However. China and Russia will share a common interest: the removal of the US from the "throne" of planetary hegemon and the emergence of a new world order, authoritarian instead of liberal Western democracy. In this case, China will attempt to inhibit "American hegemony" through Russia, i.e. exactly the opposite of what Mao Zedong did in 1972 by allying himself with the then US President Richard Nixon in order to contain the USSR.
The impression of the creation of an "axis of autocracy" was reinforced by yesterday's statement by Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesman Zhao Liyan, who asserted that the "key" to resolving the crisis in Ukraine lies in the hands of the United States and NATO, noting that he hopes the United States can truly stand on the side of peace and justice "along with most developing countries in the world."
He also stressed that the "instigators" of the crisis in Ukraine should carefully consider their role in it, honestly accept their responsibilities and, instead of blaming others, take practical steps to defuse the crisis. In the same context, the US administration's decision to expand NATO eastward is directly linked to the current crisis in Ukraine, pointing the finger of blame at the US, while he described China's position on the Ukraine issue as fair and objective, further arguing that the countries that should "feel uncomfortable" are those that believe they have won the Cold War and can impose themselves on the world, that ignore the concerns of other countries and continue to promote NATO's eastward expansion.
Russian disappointment
Despite international analysts' assessments of any China-Russia "alignment", the latter has experienced considerable disappointment from Beijing following the imposition of Western sanctions at a time of its suffocating economic pressure. In particular, the Russian ruble has fallen around 20% against the yuan, a development that China could have prevented by acting interventionist and at the same time sharply increasing the cost of Chinese imports to Russia.
Moreover, Moscow's access to yuan reserves has not been possible so far, despite the fact that Russia's dollar reserves have been "frozen" due to the sanctions, testing liquidity levels in the country. Meanwhile, China has refused to supply Russia with spare parts for its aircraft, and Chinese investment in infrastructure on Russian soil has also been halted.
Faced with the crossroads, "China is not part of the [UKRAINE] crisis and does not want sanctions to affect China," Foreign Minister Wang Yi said Tuesday during a phone call with his Spanish counterpart, giving another indication of its intentions.
Lavrov
The feverish processes taking place on all diplomatic fronts - after the Russian invasion of Ukraine - are partly reflected in the "thriller" of yesterday's plane trip by Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov. According to Bild, the Russian Foreign Minister took off for Beijing, but about halfway through the flight the aircraft changed course and returned to Moscow.
The aircraft's turn on the map sparked a number of speculations regarding the real reasons for the cancellation of the Russian Foreign Minister's trip to the Chinese capital. According to the report, "Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov really wanted to go to his great ally in Beijing. But in mid-flight, the plane changed course over Novosibirsk, Siberia. And, instead of reaching its destination, China, it returned to Vnukov airport. From where his plane had taken off."
"And the world is now wondering: Did Beijing refuse to accept the Russian foreign minister or did Vladimir Putin instruct him to return to Moscow because the situation is explosive?" the German newspaper comments, without the final destination of the aircraft being known.
Source: Proto Thema
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