Support for populist parties and populist politicians fell drastically during the pandemic, sometimes to the point of collapse, according to a major new international study by the Centre for the Study of Democracy (CFD) at the British University of Cambridge. This is the first global study of how Covid-19 has affected political perceptions and the wider political landscape globally.
Survey of 109 countries
The survey, which covered the views of over half a million people in 109 countries (including Greece) over the period 2020-21, found clear evidence that the populist wave that had preceded it was halted by the pandemic, in part because of the indifferent or mismanaged handling of the coronial crisis by many populist leaders (Trump, Bolsonaro, etc.a.o.), as well as the widespread desire for stability among citizens, which resulted in a decline in polarizing views and a rise in centrist views.
The study considered the following four central populist views: The country is divided between normal people and corrupt elites - The will of the people should guide policy - Special interests block progress - Information is deliberately withheld from the public.
The researchers, led by Dr Roberto Foa, co-director of the CFD, point out that the threats of the pandemic have brought about a "technocratic" shift and a corresponding shift away from populism, with a parallel increase in trust in governments and experts such as scientists.
Covid ended the wave of political populism
As Foa noted, "the history of politics in recent years has been marked by the emergence of anti-establishment policies that have flourished amid an increased lack of trust in experts. From Erdogan and Bolsonaro to the authoritarian leaders of Eastern Europe, the globe has witnessed a wave of political populism. Covid-19 seems to have put an end to this wave." He added that "electoral support for populist parties has collapsed around the world in a way we have not seen for more conventional politicians. There are now strong indications that the pandemic has severely curtailed the rise of populism."
Approval ratings for populist leaders around the world began falling almost as soon as the coronavirus hit and have continued to decline ever since. On average, populist leaders have shown a 10% drop between the spring of 2020 and the last quarter of 2021, while in contrast, approval rates for non-populists have returned (again on average) to roughly their pre-pandemic levels.
The acceptance of populist parties has taken a similar "dive", with the phenomenon being most visible in Europe, where the percentage of those who now say they will vote for a populist party has fallen by an average of 11 percentage points, to 27%. This is seen both in populist parties in government, such as the Five Star Party in Italy and the Fidezs (Orbán's) in Hungary, and those in opposition, where support during the pandemic fell by five percentage points to an average of 11%. In contrast, non-populist parties in opposition gained 'points' in the midst of the pandemic.
Worst scores for populist leaders on pandemic
In June 2020, public approval of how governments handled the pandemic was on average 11 percentage points lower in countries with populist leaders than in those with more centrist governments, and by the end of 2020 this "gap" had widened to 16 points.
"The pandemic reinforced a sense of common purpose that reduced the political polarisation we had seen over the last decade. This helps explain why populist leaders are now struggling to win support," said researcher Dr Xavier Romero-Vidal.
Almost all countries with populist views, such as "corrupt elites are dividing our nation" or "the will of the people must be respected", lost significant ground between 2019 and 2021, for example by 9% in Italy, 10% in France and 8% in Britain. According to Foa, this is partly because "closing the borders due to Covid-19 has stopped immigration and globalised trade more effectively than any populist government."
On the other hand, however, according to the survey, the populist retreat does not seem to have been accompanied by a renewed faith in liberal democracy. Rather, citizens tend to support more technocratic solutions, favouring decision-making by non-political experts. The belief that experts should make decisions "according to what they think is best for their country" has increased between summer 2020 and the end of 2021 in Europe by 14%, reaching 62%, and in the US by 8%, reaching 57%.
Belief in democracy as a political system
While trust in governments has increased during the pandemic by an average of 3.4% globally, belief in democracy as a political system has not increased, respectively. According to the researchers, "satisfaction with democracy has recovered only slightly from its post-war nadir in 2019 and is currently still well below the long-term average." Large declines in democratic support amid a pandemic were seen in Germany, Spain, Greece and Japan, countries with large elderly populations particularly vulnerable to coronavirus. In the US, the percentage of those who consider democracy a "bad" way to govern more than doubled from 10.5% at the end of 2019 to nearly 26% at the end of 2021.
Thus, according to Foa, "the pandemic has brought both good and bad news for liberal democracy. The positive side is that we are seeing a decline in populism and a restoration of trust in government. The negative side is that some anti-liberal views are gaining ground and satisfaction with democracy remains very low."
Source: in.gr
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