The ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) is down by ten points, according to the latest poll by research firm Sosyo Politik Saha, while the percentage of undecided voters in the presidential election appears to be very high, reaching 38.1 percent.
According to the survey, which was conducted between 28 December 2021 and 2 January 2022 in 20 Turkish cities with the participation of 1876 people, when asked 'what do you think is Turkey's most important problem?' 65.6% answered 'economic crisis/unemployment', 12.5% 'lack of democracy', 9.9% 'presidential system', 5.6% 'current state of the legal system', 5.3% 'Kurdish issue'.
To the question 'do you find the presidential system successful?' 24.3% of the participants answered 'successful' and 60% 'unsuccessful'.
Asked if they would vote for one of the coalitions, 33.3% answered 'I would vote for the National Alliance (AKP-MHP)' and 32.7% 'I would vote for the People's Alliance (opposition parties CHP-Good Party)', 13.2% answered "I am undecided", 12.5% answered "I can only vote if it includes the party I voted for", 8.3% answered "No, I will not vote in any case". It was noted that most women wanted to vote for the People's Alliance and the majority of men for the National Alliance.
To the question "If general elections were held this Sunday, which party would you vote for?" 27% of the participants answered AKP, 22.9% CHP, 11.9% "I am undecided", 10.3% Good Party, 9.4% pro-Kurdish HDP, 6.3% MHP, 5.7% "I will not vote."
After the distribution of votes, the percentages of the parties are as follows: AKP: 32.8%, CHP: 27.8%, Good Party 12.5%, pro-Kurdish HDP: 11.5%, MHP: 7.6%.
Based on the poll, however, the Turkish president wins the presidential election over both CHP leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu and Ankara and Istanbul mayors Mansour Yavas and Ekrem Imamoglu, respectively. Opposing Kemal Kilicdaroglu, Tayyip Erdogan receives 33.5% against Kemal Kilicdaroglu's 30.2% and with 27.8% undecided.
Opposing Mansour Yavas, Tayyip Erdogan receives 33.4% against Mansour Yavas' 22.3% and 23.5% remain undecided. Against Ekrem Imamoglu, Tayyip Erdogan receives 32% against Ekrem Imamoglu's 31.4% with 24.8% undecided.
Possibility of early elections in June
However, while the ruling party's ratings are plummeting economists warn that inflation could rise to 50% by May 2022 and that this could cause a further drop in the already negative performance of the Turkish lira.
The dollar was trading at 13.78 Turkish lira this morning. At the same time the euro was at 15.62 Turkish pounds. The dollar rallied against the pound despite the supply of foreign exchange from the central bank's reserves after falling from an all-time high of 18.4 to 10. Even the transition to the new system through currency swaps announced by Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan remained relatively low due to high inflation and uncertainty. The Central Bank lost about $20 billion in reserves in December.
Political and economic analysts do not rule out the current economic program in the markets leading to elections before 2023. In his report this morning, Atila Yesilada of Istanbul Analytiks says that "our baseline scenario is that Erdogan and the Turkish National Assembly will declare early elections in June."
Increases in product prices
However, the increases in electricity, gas and fuel prices since December 29, when the store chains announced that they would have discounts, in the end the discounts never came. Consumer associations said that the 80% increase in producer prices announced by the Turkish Statistical Office has started to be reflected in the market.
The dollar, which soared to 18 Turkish kronor with the Central Bank's decision to cut the interest rate last month, caused high price increases in many products, from food to textiles and from cars to electronics. Then, with the announcement of Tayyip Erdogan's guaranteed foreign currency deposit, there was an expectation that they would roll back the increases as the dollar fell to 10 Turkish lira in one day. Instead, with the big hikes announced one after another earlier this year, the discount was again replaced by price increases.
But bread, already a staple due to the increase in the cost of wheat production which was 1.92 Turkish liras last year, was raised to 4.25 liras in 2022. The increase in production costs from fertilizers to pesticides will be reflected in the price of bread, which recently rose to 3.5 Turkish liras in Istanbul. If no measures are taken, it seems very difficult for people to find bread under 5 liras this year, according to Republican People's Party (CHP) MP in Manisa, Bekir Basevirgen.
Source: Cyprus Times
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